Market Reports

Three quarters of the way through the year, 2019 has been better than expected. DFW growth has continued to increase. DFW still struggles to find labor, and that is the biggest strain on the economy at the present time. There is a true war for talent, and we continue to monitor this closely. Trade tariffs and slowed oil & gas activity continue to be a concern; however, there is enormous interest from coastal markets on the relocation & investment fronts from (New York, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco). The economy continues to grow, and we feel the fundamentals for Dallas-Fort Worth are positive and the 4th quarter of 2019 will be exceptional.


Three quarters of the way through the year, 2019 has been better than expected. DFW growth has continued to increase. DFW still struggles to find labor, and that is the biggest strain on the economy at the present time. There is a true war for talent, and we continue to monitor this closely. Trade tariffs and slowed oil & gas activity continue to be a concern; however, there is enormous interest from coastal markets on the relocation front and the investment from (New York, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco), the economy continues to grow, and we feel the fundamentals for Dallas-Fort Worth continue to be positive and the 4th quarter of 2019 is expected to be exceptional.


The Denver retail market has been a cyclical winner. Trade area demographics are supporting retail sales, with the metro's superior growth in population, employment, and income increasing buying power.


The Denver office market is in the midst of a moderate rebound. Rent growth slowed sharply throughout 2015 and 2016 as the market felt the full brunt of the collapse in oil prices, and rents at 4 & 5 Star properties briefly turned negative.


Several indicators emerged or firmed over the past year that point to rebounding demand in Denver's apartment market.


A confluence of events has led Denver to become one of the hottest industrial markets in the country. Robust demand in this regional market with a strong local economy is stemming from the growth of retail sales, employment, and industrial production in the metro area and the greater Colorado region.


The first half of 2019 showed little change in the Oklahoma City office market, but what change occurred was fairly positive.   Vacancies fell from 20.1% to 19.3% and absorption of space totaled 128,000 square feet.


Oklahoma City real estate is known for its relative stability and slow but steady growth.  We typically don’t see the cyclical volatility nor the overexuberance of other markets.  The numbers for the first half of the year reflect this even as retail nationally and locally is undergoing transformational change.


Current multi-tenant industrial vacancy for the Oklahoma City metro area now stands at 16.96%, down from 20.31% in mid-year 2018. These swings seem to be the new normal – multi-year strong absorption and rent growth periods followed by multi-year double-digit vacancy and relative quiescence (a kinder term to use around your developer friends than “stagnation”), culminating in eight to ten-year cycles overall.


The second quarter of 2019 continues to show that the market favors the landlord. Vacancy rates held steady in Q2, while asking rents rose from $7.09 in the first quarter, to $7.17 in Q2.


The industrial vacancy rate for the first quarter of 2019 has shown a minimal increase to 5.50%, up 0.02% from Q4 2018, which was 5.48%.


“As we review and analyze 2018 Investments Sales activity and results in Calgary, one quote comes to mind: “Your big opportunity may be right where you are now.” by Napoleon Hill. Though 2018 results are better than 2017 and 2016 investment sales numbers, we still have a long way to go. The arrow, however, is pointing in the right direction.”


“Investors came back to Edmonton’s commercial real estate (CRE) investment market and liked what they saw in 2018. Total dollar volume invested exceeded $2.65 billion, driven by renewed interest in ICI Land, plus strong demand for Multi-Residential properties.”


Overall market occupancy equaled 92 percent at year-end 2018, unchanged from a year ago. This confirms that there has been little overall movement in the aggregate market but belies all the activity behind the numbers. The underlying fact is that retail continues to grow, both nationally and locally. We added 650,000 square feet of space in centers over 25,000 square feet this past year, maintained occupancy, and, for the most part, rents. Much of the pain of the last few years is over – store closings have declined, downsizing is still taking place but at a reasonable rate, and retail layoffs have leveled off.


“Investors are back and active in Edmonton’s commercial real estate (CRE) investment market in a meaningful way. Led by a resurgence of interest in ICI Land and an uptick in demand for Multi-Residential properties and Industrial assets, total dollar volume invested rose by 8% year-over-year.” -- Doug Grinde, Vice President, Barclay Street Real Estate


“Investors are back in Calgary’s commercial real estate (CRE) investment market and their wallets are open. Fuelled by a continued desire for retail assets and renewed interest in ICI and Residential Land, total dollar volume invested rose by 23% year-over- year.” -- George Larson, Vice President, Investment Sales, Barclay Street Real Estate


The first half of 2018 brought expected results for the Oklahoma City Central Business District with increased vacancy due to the addition of the BOK Park Plaza Building to available inventory and negative absorption of 84,000 square feet. However, there are continued signs of improvement in the suburbs as 157,000 square feet was absorbed in those submarkets. The net absorption for the entire market was a positive 73,000 square feet; the first positive absorption total in the past seven semi-annual reports.


AT THE MID-POINT OF 2018, CALGARY’S RETAIL MARKET CONTINUED TO GRAPPLE WITH A FLOOD OF VACANT SEARS RETAIL SPACE THROUGHOUT THE CITY.


The retail market in Portland did not experience much change during the second quarter. With the vacancy rate at 3.2%, net absorption was a positive 83,327 square feet and vacant sublease space increased by 29,737 square feet. There was a slight increase in quoted rental rates, ending at $17.35 per square foot per year. Seven buildings were delivered to the market and 1,129,274 square feet are still under construction.


The second quarter in the Portland Office market ended with a 6.6% vacancy rate. While net absorption totaled a positive 1,160,537 square feet, vacant sublease space increased to 334,810 square feet. The quarter finished with rental rates at $23.81, which remained the same from the first quarter. Five buildings were delivered to the market with 2,503,330 square feet under construction at the end of the quarter.


The end of the third quarter brings healthy activity from both the sales and leasing market throughout the Calgary area.


AT THE MID-POINT OF 2017, THE EDMONTON MARKET POSTED A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE QUARTER OF RENEWED APPEAL TO COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE (CRE) INVESTORS. AS A BONUS, 2017 IS WIDELY CONSIDERED THE YEAR ALBERTA WILL SEE ITS ECONOMY ENTER A RECOVERY STAGE. THE SENSE OF OPTIMISM THAT SET IN DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF 2016 CONTINUED AND WAS MANIFEST IN THE MORE THAN $1.08 BILLION BEING INVESTED IN COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES FROM JANUARY THROUGH JUNE.


DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 2017, RAYS OF LIGHT CONTINUED BREAKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS CAST BY A NEARLY THREE-YEAR LONG RECESSION. THOUGH THE ALBERTA ECONOMY GENERALLY CONTINUED MOVING AT A SLOWED PACE, A FEW KEY SECTORS EXPANDED AND SEVERAL LARGE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MAINTAINED THEIR FORECASTS OF AN OVERALL RECOVERY THIS YEAR.


CALGARY’S SUBURBAN MARKETS EXPERIENCED AN INTERESTING SECOND QUARTER AS SEVERAL NEW OFFICE DEVELOPMENTS WERE DELIVERED.


VACANCY IN CALGARY’S DOWNTOWN REMAINED RELATIVELY STEADY AT MID-YEAR 2017, RISING BY 0.4% TO 24.6%.


Vacancy dropped to 3% following four consecutive quarters in the mid-3% range. This marks a return to Q1 2016 levels.


Investors continued to demonstrate confidence in the Calgary market through the first quarter of 2017.


At the end of the first trimester of 2017, the industrial market of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City recorded an inventory of 8.8M Sq.M of industrial ships class A, mainly in the submarkets of Cuautitlan (32%) and Toluca (20%).


The first trimester of the year closed with a total office inventory of 5.8 million Sq.M in class A+ and A offices. This means an increase of 339 thousand Sq.M.


Interesting things happened in the Downtown market over the first three months of the year; notably in leasing trends at the smallest end of available options.


A pleasant surprise! While expectations were that CRE investment in the Edmonton market would decline, we have seen strong overall demand and spending, particularly on Retail properties over the course of 2016, shifting from ICI Land the previous year. The remaining asset classes largely remained stable and generally exceeded analysts’ expectations.


The entrance of institutional investors in the Calgary market, during a down period, demonstrates a renewed confidence in the future of the city. Adding additional appeal is the advanced process of industry diversification. The results of 2016 are of no surprise to prudent investors and to us Calgarians.


THE BELTLINE MARKET WITNESSED NET POSITIVE ABSORPTION DURING THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2016, TOTALLING 135,000 SQUARE FEET (SF).


THE OVERALL VACANCY RATE IN SUBURBAN CALGARY WAS ESSENTIALLY FLAT DURING THE FOURTH QUARTER, RISING A FRACTION OF A PERCENT TO 22.6% FROM 22.3% IN Q3 2016.


Over the course of 2016, 2.5 million square feet (msf) of office space was returned to the market, causing the vacancy rate in downtown Calgary to increase by 6.2% year-over-year from Q4 2015. Downtown vacancy sat at 23.5%, representing 9.8 msf of space available for lease within a 41.6 msf inventory. Despite renewed activity among A Class and B Class headlease spaces, the overall trend of negative absorption continued, though as a slowed pace when compared to 2015 and early 2016. It should be noted that 3.9 msf were vacated during the previous year.


The ongoing economic downturn continued to exert pressure on Landlords and Tenants, leading to several store and restaurant closures. Therein, however, lay opportunity for others to take advantage of decreasing market rental rates, which led to the opening of multiple new franchise locations.


Investor sentiment regarding the Calgary market showed signs of renewed confidence as 2016 progressed.


Calgary’s industrial vacancy rate has slid again slightly to 7.80% as of the end of the third quarter 2016. Vacancy has steadily increased through 2015 and 2016, from 4.30% at the end of 2014. This marks the highest recorded vacancy rate for Calgary’s industrial market in the past 15+ years.


Welcome to Bilfinger GVA’s central London office analysis; our detailed view of the market in Q3 2016.


The third trimester of 2016 closed with a total office inventory of 5.7 million sq. m in offices of class A and A+. This means an increase of 563 thousand Sq. M in comparison with last year’s third trimester.


TCN Worldwide's State of the Market: Eastern Edition, 4th Quarter 2015 Prepared by Hugh F. Kelly, PhD, CRE, Consulting Economist to TCNIn this edition: –Overview of National Economic Context –Regional Conditions in the Eastern States –Commercial Property Investment Trends


TCN Worldwide's State of the Market: Eastern Edition, 3rd Quarter 2015 Prepared by Hugh F. Kelly, PhD, CRE Consulting Economist to TCNIn this edition: –Overview of National Economic Context –Regional Conditions in the Eastern States –Commercial Property Investment Trends


"As we enter the second half of 2015 we see markets which are continuing to trend towards favorable levels. Buyers are beginning to respond to the Federal Reserve’s hint of an interest rate increase later this September. We see a pronounced increase in the acquisition market and anticipate this activity will continue going forward into 2016."


"Second quarter 2015 continues an ongoing positive trend ... our seventeenth straight quarter of positive absorption."


2015 Q2 | STREET SMARTS (MHP, NYC)

Research and analysis by Hugh Kelly


The past twelve months have seen a rise in multi-tenant industrial vacancy from 17.63% in 2017 to 20.13% in 2018.


The second quarter saw a slight increase in vacancy from 6.3% in Q1, to 6.4% in Q2, indicating that the market continues to move forward at a healthy pace.


Bradford Allen is pleased to share with you our 2018 first quarter office market report.This quarter in the downtown market:• Office market activity in River West is officially tracked as the most recent submarket to join the CBD. • Net absorption was positive 720,640 sf. • The direct vacancy rate dropped to 11.85% from 12.1%, and the average gross asking rent decreased to $39.38psf from $40.69psf, both compared to the previous quarter.


Vacancy for Q1/2018 remains at 6.3% and rates were largely unchanged for industrial, with a slight increase from $5.88 SF in Q4/2017 up to $5.92 SF at the end of the first quarter. Demand continues to outweigh supply and the majority of submarkets continue to experience low vacancy rates.


Retail Market Forecasts Continued Growth


Office Market Sees Vacancy Rates Rise Slightly.


Multifamily Market Closes 2017 on a High Note.At the beginning of 2017 most said it was the beginning of the inevitable slowdown; however, as we roll into a new year and look back at our forecast, the market ended up right where we expected. 2017 was not only a solid year in terms of investment activity, it was also a strong year from the owner/investor side. We experienced positive sales volume growth, positive rental growth and even managed to push the occupancy a little higher, a multifamily trifecta. Although the year started off a little shaky with many reports citing pressure on rents and occupancies, the rebound in Oklahoma’s economy was a welcome boost pressing the multifamily market forward.


Chicago’s suburban office market suffered its fair share of hits over the past few years but seems to be on an upward trend.


As 2017 closed out, Chicago’s downtown employment base was growing and the economy was largely still in expansion mode from the last serious contraction in 2010.


Lack of product for sale continues in Q4 2017. Market analysis showed that Sales Volume for industrial real estate in the Chicago market was down to $728 Million in the 4th quarter, the lowest Q4 volume since 2014.


The Upper Tollway Sub-Market has consistently been one of the main hubs of office real estate activity in Dallas. With relocations of large corporate campuses, such as Toyota, Fannie Mae, Liberty Mutual, and JP Morgan Chase, the area is becoming even more appealing as the influx of developers continue to attempt to capitalize on the enticing market. This recent construction has resulted in a surprisingly large vacancy rate for a market with such an “awe factor.”


This Richardson/East Plano Submarket covers the I-75 corridor from Walnut Street to Hedgcoxe Road and includes central Plano up to Sam Rayburn Tollway to the North until Alma Road when it drops down to Hedgecoxe Road and Coit Road to the West. The included statistics cover Class A and B office buildings that have more than 50,000 square feet and are either under construction or existing. With more large companies looking to relocate and consolidate to the Dallas suburbs, the Richardson/East Plano Sub-Market provides a valuable option with several large blocks of space still available.


The North Central Expressway Sub-Market is defined geographically as the area that is bordered by Hillcrest Avenue to the West, N Haskell Avenue to the South, Greenville Avenue to the East, and Forest Lane to the North. This analysis is focused on Class A and B office buildings that are existing or under construction and contain a minimum of 75,000 rentable square feet.


The Lower Tollway Sub-Market is defined by the geographic boundaries of Alpha Road on the south, President George Bush Turnpike on the north, Preston Road on the east, and Midway Road on the west.


The East LBJ Corridor Sub-Market is defined geographically as the area that is bordered by Midway Road to the West, Forest Lane to the South, TI Boulevard to the East, and Alpha Road to the North. This analysis is focused on Class A and B office buildings that are existing or under construction and contain a minimum of 50,000 rentable square feet.


The East Plano Sub-Market covers the area east of US-75, south of 14th Street, west of Northstar/Los Rios Boulevard and north of President George Bush Turnpike, until it turns south, at which point the southern border of the sub-market becomes Lookout Drive. The included statistics cover industrial and flex buildings that have more than 30,000 square feet of space. The East Plano Sub-Market is experiencing the most stable period of success in its history.


The third quarter ended with an overall office vacancy of 14.5%, which is up from 14.4% in the second quarter, and down from 14.6% in the first quarter; so, it is fair to say we have remained steady this year with vacancy.


TCN Worldwide's State of the Market: Central Edition, 3rd Quarter 2017 Prepared by Hugh F. Kelly, PhD, CRE, Consulting Economist to TCN Worldwide. In this edition: –National and Macroeconomic Overview –Regional Economic Conditions –Commercial Property Investment Trends


The 3 Cs – Confidence, Caution and Concessions – Drive the CBD


This quarter in the suburban market: Net absorption for the year was negative 824,740 square feet, down from the first quarter’s positive 661,382 square feet. The overall vacancy rate was 20.7%. Available space in large (over 100,000 square feet), true Class A properties are most prevalent in the North and Northwest markets.


TCN Worldwide's State of the Market: Western Edition, 3rd Quarter 2016 Prepared by Hugh F. Kelly, PhD, CRE, Consulting Economist to TCN Worldwide In this edition: –National and Macroeconomic Overview –Regional Conditions in the Western States –Commercial Property Investment Trends


TCN Worldwide's State of the Market: Western Edition, 2nd Quarter 2016 Prepared by Hugh F. Kelly, PhD, CRE, Consulting Economist to TCN WorldwideIn this edition: –National and Macroeconomic Overview –Regional Conditions in the Western States –Commercial Property Investment Trends


As we enter the fifth year of the latest "tech boom," there are some pretty compelling signs that the "party is almost over."


TCN Worldwide's State of the Market: Western Edition, 1st Quarter 2016 Prepared by Hugh F. Kelly, PhD, CRE, Consulting Economist to TCNIn this edition: –Overview of National Economic Context –Regional Conditions in the Western States –Commercial Property Investment Trends


Stark & Associates Retail Market Newsletter for the Northern Nevada Market. Local experts are bullish on Nevada...


TCN Worldwide's State of the Market: Western Edition, 3rd Quarter 2015 Prepared by Hugh F. Kelly, PhD, CRE Consulting Economist to TCNIn this edition: –Overview of National Economic Context –Regional Conditions in the Western States –Commercial Property Investment Trends


TCN Worldwide's State of the Market: Western Edition, 3rd Quarter 2015 Prepared by Hugh F. Kelly, PhD, CRE Consulting Economist to TCNIn this edition: –Overview of National Economic Context –Regional Conditions in the Western States –Commercial Property Investment Trends


The Scottsdale Office market ended the second quarter 2015 with a vacancy rate of 15.8%, which was slightly lower over the previous quarter. Net absorption totaled positive 42,390 square feet and rental rates ended the second quarter at $23.29, an increase over the previous quarter. No buildings were delivered, but 239,189 square feet are still under construction at the end of the quarter.


The Scottsdale retail market experienced a slight improvement in market conditions in the second quarter 2015. The vacancy rate went from 7.3% in the previous quarter to 7.5% in the current quarter. Net absorption was negative (38,078) square feet, thus creating an increase in vacant space. Quoted rental rates increased from first quarter levels, ending the second quarter at $20.24 per square foot per year. No buildings were delivered in the second quarter but 172,689 square feet are still under construction at the end of the quarter.


The Scottsdale Industrial (Northeast Ind) submarket ended the second quarter 2015 with a vacancy rate of 9.5%. The vacancy rate increased since the previous quarter, with net absorption totaling a negative 35,131 square feet in the second quarter. Vacant sublease space also increased in the quarter and rental rates ended at $11.32, an increase over the previous quarter.


A Complete Analysis of Denver Metro & Surrounding MarketsNumbers - Locations Vacancies - Rates