The tri-county area commercial market posted strong market fundamentals during the fourth quarter of 2020 for all property types. Looking back at the year and similar to 2018 and 2019, the largest commercial sales in the market involved multifamily properties. Although office tenants are evaluating what their mid- to long-term office footprint will look like in the future, overall office rents increased throughout the year. With the growth of consumer online shopping, industrial/flex tenants are continuing to increase their warehouse/distribution space. The retail market will continue to be supported by residential development. As we move into 2021, the continued expansion of the area driven by the steady population growth will see an influx of commercial real estate activity. Read on for more of the latest in the region’s commercial real estate market.
"2021 will be the year of retail recovery, but it will be a very uneven, choppy recovery."
"2020 is a year that will long be remembered as one of significant upheaval and uncertainty and the Oklahoma City office market was certainly not immune to that."
The effects of the coronavirus on the tri-county area commercial market remain unclear. Although data from the third quarter is providing greater clarity about local conditions and the short-term real estate outlook, there remains uncertainty surrounding market dynamics and long-term effects. Office Tenants are evaluating what their mid- to long-term office footprint looks like in a post-COVID world. With the growth of consumer online shopping, Industrial/ Flex Tenants are increasing warehouse/distribution space. The retail market will continue to be supported by residential development in our tri-county area.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales during May 2020 were up 17.7% seasonally adjusted from the prior month but down 6.1% year-over-year. That follows a record-setting 14.7% drop in April 2020 (month-over-month).
The last 12 months have been marked by dramatic changes. As of this writing, these events have not seriously affected the Oklahoma City multi-tenant industrial market. Overall, multi-tenant industrial properties have continued the declining vacancy trend seen over the past two years. The bulkwarehouse sector is the exception this year.
During the first half of 2020 the market vacancy rate rose from 20.9% to 23.5% in the first half of 2020. The rise in vacancies has been market-wide with the Central Business District vacancy rate rising from 21.8% to 23.6% and the suburban submarkets rising from 20.8% to 23.4% vacant. Market-wide rental rates showed a slight dip from $19.53 per square foot to $19.45 per square foot. The market experienced negative absorption of nearly 536,000 square feet which was market-wide in nature rather than limited to one or two submarkets. The CBD experienced negative absorption of 146,000 SF and the suburban submarkets totaled nearly 390,000 SF of negative absorption.
The effects of the coronavirus outbreak on the tri-county area commercial market remain unclear. Although data from the second quarter is providing greater clarity about local conditions and the short-term real estate outlook, there remains uncertainty surrounding market dynamics and long-term effects.
The effects of the coronavirus outbreak on the tri-county area commercial market remain unclear. Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, the tri-county area had strong economic momentum, and the current report largely reflects the environment before the pandemic. It is too early to provide a quantitative assessment or forecast of the ultimate market impact of COVID-19. As with previous reports, our analysis focuses on the market activity reflected in current quarterly statistics. The overnight halt to the tourism industry will likely have repercussions for the local economy. In a year of evident political and economic uncertainty, we expect to see additional tempering in metrics — including asking rent growth and construction starts — as companies look for additional signals of where their businesses are headed this year.
Three quarters of the way through the year, 2019 has been better than expected. DFW growth has continued to increase. DFW still struggles to find labor, and that is the biggest strain on the economy at the present time. There is a true war for talent, and we continue to monitor this closely. Trade tariffs and slowed oil & gas activity continue to be a concern; however, there is enormous interest from coastal markets on the relocation & investment fronts from (New York, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco). The economy continues to grow, and we feel the fundamentals for Dallas-Fort Worth are positive and the 4th quarter of 2019 will be exceptional.
Three quarters of the way through the year, 2019 has been better than expected. DFW growth has continued to increase. DFW still struggles to find labor, and that is the biggest strain on the economy at the present time. There is a true war for talent, and we continue to monitor this closely. Trade tariffs and slowed oil & gas activity continue to be a concern; however, there is enormous interest from coastal markets on the relocation front and the investment from (New York, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco), the economy continues to grow, and we feel the fundamentals for Dallas-Fort Worth continue to be positive and the 4th quarter of 2019 is expected to be exceptional.
The Denver retail market has been a cyclical winner. Trade area demographics are supporting retail sales, with the metro's superior growth in population, employment, and income increasing buying power.
The Denver office market is in the midst of a moderate rebound. Rent growth slowed sharply throughout 2015 and 2016 as the market felt the full brunt of the collapse in oil prices, and rents at 4 & 5 Star properties briefly turned negative.
Several indicators emerged or firmed over the past year that point to rebounding demand in Denver's apartment market.
A confluence of events has led Denver to become one of the hottest industrial markets in the country. Robust demand in this regional market with a strong local economy is stemming from the growth of retail sales, employment, and industrial production in the metro area and the greater Colorado region.
The first half of 2019 showed little change in the Oklahoma City office market, but what change occurred was fairly positive. Vacancies fell from 20.1% to 19.3% and absorption of space totaled 128,000 square feet.
Oklahoma City real estate is known for its relative stability and slow but steady growth. We typically don’t see the cyclical volatility nor the overexuberance of other markets. The numbers for the first half of the year reflect this even as retail nationally and locally is undergoing transformational change.
Current multi-tenant industrial vacancy for the Oklahoma City metro area now stands at 16.96%, down from 20.31% in mid-year 2018. These swings seem to be the new normal – multi-year strong absorption and rent growth periods followed by multi-year double-digit vacancy and relative quiescence (a kinder term to use around your developer friends than “stagnation”), culminating in eight to ten-year cycles overall.
The second quarter of 2019 continues to show that the market favors the landlord. Vacancy rates held steady in Q2, while asking rents rose from $7.09 in the first quarter, to $7.17 in Q2.
The industrial vacancy rate for the first quarter of 2019 has shown a minimal increase to 5.50%, up 0.02% from Q4 2018, which was 5.48%.
Calgary’s industrial vacancy rate has slid again slightly to 7.80% as of the end of the third quarter 2016. Vacancy has steadily increased through 2015 and 2016, from 4.30% at the end of 2014. This marks the highest recorded vacancy rate for Calgary’s industrial market in the past 15+ years.
Welcome to Bilfinger GVA’s central London office analysis; our detailed view of the market in Q3 2016.
The third trimester of 2016 closed with a total office inventory of 5.7 million sq. m in offices of class A and A+. This means an increase of 563 thousand Sq. M in comparison with last year’s third trimester.
At the end of the third quarter of 2016, the industrial market Class A of Mexico City recorded an inventory of 8.3M Sq.M. with the Cuautitlan submarket covering a larger share of that inventory (33%) followed by Toluca (20%).
Since mid-year 2016, Beltline vacancy has increased by 1.4%% to end Q3 at 19.7%. Given that negative absorption occurred among headleases versus subleases at a ratio of 2:1, the distribution between headlease and sublease space was adjusted to 74% and 26%, respectively. This quarter witnessed net absorption of negative 102,878 sf.
Overall vacancy increased by 1.1% during the third quarter to 22.3%. The distribution of vacancies by suburban building class changed slightly as a result of 106,000 sf of B Class vacancies, plus approximately 158,000 sf of unleased A Class space among several new Suburban developments. An additional 159,000 of sublease space was also placed on the market.
Over the third quarter of 2016, the vacancy rate in Calgary’s Downtown market exceeded 22.%. This represents a record high, comprising 9.2 million square feet of space available for lease within a 41.6 million square foot (msf) inventory. Despite some activity among A Class and C Class sublease spaces, the overall trend of negative absorption continued at roughly the same pace as we’ve seen since the beginning of 2015.
Welcome to Bilfinger GVA’s central London office analysis; our detailed view of the market in Q2 2016. The B word—It actually happened! Despite the fact that the EU referendum has cast a shadow over the last year, when the results came through, it seems that nobody actually expected it. The fallout of the decision to leave the European Union is still to be fully understood but there has clearly been quite a shock wave throughout the whole of the UK and the central London office market.
There are several types of commercial leases and terms, but a common thread among them is that the devil is in the details. Commercial real estate lease contracts are notoriously tricky documents, and a good or bad lease can mean manageable versus inflated real estate costs or even the difference between success or failure for businesses. With so much riding on a single document, it’s wise to consult a professional commercial real estate broker. Many Tenants don’t realize that a commercial real estate broker can also be retained for lease renewals. Tenant representation during lease renewal negotiations helps ensure that the terms are in line with the market and often leads to competitive concessions being received on lease rates and premises improvements. When the economy is soft, Landlords with near term rollover are further motivated to lock-in Tenants rather than risk losing them. This is a critical opportunity to not only renew the lease, but improve the lease.
Stubbornly low energy prices during the first half of 2016 kept the Alberta economy moving at a sluggish pace.The slowed market kept a lid on investment activity in Calgary and prolonged the ‘wait and see’ attitude in the investment market, for major and minor players alike. Many investors continued patiently waiting on the sidelines, looking for opportunities while current owners held onto properties of consequence.
At the end of the second quarter of 2016, the industrial market Class A of Mexico City recorded an inventory of 8.3M Sq.M, with the Cuautitlan submarket which covers a larger share of that inventory (33%) followed by Toluca (20%).
Year-to-date commercial real estate (CRE) investment in the Edmonton market proved resilient against the backdrop of a second recessionary year.
Since Q1 2016, Beltline vacancy has increased by approximately 0.7% to end Q2 at 18.3%. Given that sublease absorption for the quarter totaled positive 30,000 sf the current distribution between headlease and sublease space was adjusted to 75% and 25%, respectively. This quarter witnessed net absorption of negative 51,000 sf.
Vacancy in Calgary’s industrial real estate market has hit an all-time high of 7.49% at the end of the second quarter 2016. A combination of construction completion, major occupant shuffling, and a negatively impacted oil and gas manufacturing and service sector have all combined to continue vacancy’s slide upward from 4.30% at the end of 2014.
Historically speaking, office condo units have traditionally been developed in small quantities in suburban markets and geared towards professional and medical service industries. The office condo concept has created an opportunity for occupiers to own their office space with the advantages of having fixed and clear costs, full control over the design within the premises and, significantly, tax benefits not available leasing tenants.
Over the second quarter of 2016, the vacancy rate in Calgary’s Downtown market reached 21.2%. This represents a record high, comprising 8.8 million square feet of space available for lease within a 41 million square foot (msf) inventory.
THE OVERALL VACANCY RATE IN SUBURBAN CALGARY INCREASED DURING THE SECOND QUARTER TO 21.2%.
At the mid-point of 2016, Calgary’s overall retail market showed initial signs of strain against the pressures exerted by the economic downturn. Retail vacancy sat at 3.4%; slightly above the previous high water mark of 3.1% which was set in the third quarter of 2008. To place these statistics in perspective, Calgary’s retail inventory at that time was approximately 25 million square feet (msf); 63% of current volume.
A Canadian Retail Market White Paper by Barclay Street Real Estate & Primecorp Commercial Realty- National Outlook - Retail Trends in Calgary - Retail Trends in the National Capital Region
As can be expected, the effects of low priced oil, combined with a dramatically changed political landscape in Alberta, affected investor sentiment and caused the investment market in Edmonton to quiet significantly in 2015.
Retail Market Forecasts Continued Growth
Office Market Sees Vacancy Rates Rise Slightly.
Multifamily Market Closes 2017 on a High Note.At the beginning of 2017 most said it was the beginning of the inevitable slowdown; however, as we roll into a new year and look back at our forecast, the market ended up right where we expected. 2017 was not only a solid year in terms of investment activity, it was also a strong year from the owner/investor side. We experienced positive sales volume growth, positive rental growth and even managed to push the occupancy a little higher, a multifamily trifecta. Although the year started off a little shaky with many reports citing pressure on rents and occupancies, the rebound in Oklahoma’s economy was a welcome boost pressing the multifamily market forward.
Chicago’s suburban office market suffered its fair share of hits over the past few years but seems to be on an upward trend.
As 2017 closed out, Chicago’s downtown employment base was growing and the economy was largely still in expansion mode from the last serious contraction in 2010.
Lack of product for sale continues in Q4 2017. Market analysis showed that Sales Volume for industrial real estate in the Chicago market was down to $728 Million in the 4th quarter, the lowest Q4 volume since 2014.
The Upper Tollway Sub-Market has consistently been one of the main hubs of office real estate activity in Dallas. With relocations of large corporate campuses, such as Toyota, Fannie Mae, Liberty Mutual, and JP Morgan Chase, the area is becoming even more appealing as the influx of developers continue to attempt to capitalize on the enticing market. This recent construction has resulted in a surprisingly large vacancy rate for a market with such an “awe factor.”
This Richardson/East Plano Submarket covers the I-75 corridor from Walnut Street to Hedgcoxe Road and includes central Plano up to Sam Rayburn Tollway to the North until Alma Road when it drops down to Hedgecoxe Road and Coit Road to the West. The included statistics cover Class A and B office buildings that have more than 50,000 square feet and are either under construction or existing. With more large companies looking to relocate and consolidate to the Dallas suburbs, the Richardson/East Plano Sub-Market provides a valuable option with several large blocks of space still available.
The North Central Expressway Sub-Market is defined geographically as the area that is bordered by Hillcrest Avenue to the West, N Haskell Avenue to the South, Greenville Avenue to the East, and Forest Lane to the North. This analysis is focused on Class A and B office buildings that are existing or under construction and contain a minimum of 75,000 rentable square feet.
The Lower Tollway Sub-Market is defined by the geographic boundaries of Alpha Road on the south, President George Bush Turnpike on the north, Preston Road on the east, and Midway Road on the west.
The East LBJ Corridor Sub-Market is defined geographically as the area that is bordered by Midway Road to the West, Forest Lane to the South, TI Boulevard to the East, and Alpha Road to the North. This analysis is focused on Class A and B office buildings that are existing or under construction and contain a minimum of 50,000 rentable square feet.
The East Plano Sub-Market covers the area east of US-75, south of 14th Street, west of Northstar/Los Rios Boulevard and north of President George Bush Turnpike, until it turns south, at which point the southern border of the sub-market becomes Lookout Drive. The included statistics cover industrial and flex buildings that have more than 30,000 square feet of space. The East Plano Sub-Market is experiencing the most stable period of success in its history.
The third quarter ended with an overall office vacancy of 14.5%, which is up from 14.4% in the second quarter, and down from 14.6% in the first quarter; so, it is fair to say we have remained steady this year with vacancy.
TCN Worldwide's State of the Market: Central Edition, 3rd Quarter 2017 Prepared by Hugh F. Kelly, PhD, CRE, Consulting Economist to TCN Worldwide. In this edition: –National and Macroeconomic Overview –Regional Economic Conditions –Commercial Property Investment Trends
The 3 Cs – Confidence, Caution and Concessions – Drive the CBD
This quarter in the suburban market: Net absorption for the year was negative 824,740 square feet, down from the first quarter’s positive 661,382 square feet. The overall vacancy rate was 20.7%. Available space in large (over 100,000 square feet), true Class A properties are most prevalent in the North and Northwest markets.
This quarter in the downtown market: Net absorption for the year was positive 642,176 square feet. The overall vacancy rate was 13.2%. The West Loop continues to be the Central Business District’s darling with 7 of the 11 proposed and under construction office buildings within its confines.
VACANCY DOWN TO 11%
Regardless of High Vacancies, Construction Progresses
The Richardson/East Plano Sub-Market has shown a decrease in the direct Class A vacancy from 24.7% in the second quarter of 2016 to 22.8% for the start of second quarter 2017. Meanwhile, direct weighted average full-service rents increased from $26.91 to $27.38 per square foot during the same time. Class B vacancy decreased from 15.6% to 13.3% and as a result, full-service rental rates increased from $18.88 per square foot to $19.48 per square foot.